A INFLUÊNCIA DA DEMOGRAFIA NA PERMANÊNCIA DOS ALUNOS NA EAD

Abstract

Distance Education (DE) has become a relevant strategy for democratizing access to education, especially in technical and professional training. However, high dropout rates remain a significant challenge, requiring in-depth analysis of the factors that influence student retention. This study aimed to investigate the impact of sociodemographic characteristics on school dropout in technical distance education courses at the Instituto Federal Goiano (IF Goiano), between 2018 and 2023. Variables such as age, gender, income, and ethnic background were considered. This quantitative research used secondary data from the Nilo Peçanha Platform, analyzing 7,005 student enrollments. It was found that only 20% of students completed the course, while 80% dropped out. Dropout rates were higher among adults, the elderly, lowincome individuals, and women, suggesting that workload, lack of institutional support, and difficulties in accessing technology are key influencing factors. There was also a significant omission of data related to income (88%) and race/ethnicity, which hindered more precise intersectional analyses and the development of effective public policies. Based on the findings, a Student Profile Analysis Guide was proposed to assist institutional managers in personalizing pedagogical and retention strategies in distance education. The study's limitations are related to the incompleteness of institutional databases, especially regarding gender diversity and students’ socioeconomic conditions. It is recommended to improve data collection and management mechanisms and to develop future research using mixed methods and tools sensitive to student diversity. It is concluded that dropout in DE must be addressed through inclusive policies that ensure not only access but also qualified and equitable retention of students.