Efeito das mudanças climáticas sobre espécies de plantas perigosas às abelhas: o caso da tulipeira africana e do nim

Abstract

Climate change and the intensification of human activities have facilitated the introduction and spread of invasive alien species, posing a major threat to global biodiversity. Among the impacts associated with these species are ecosystem alteration, replacement of native flora, and negative effects on essential ecosystem services, such as pollination. In this context, this study aimed to analyze the current and future potential distribution of Spathodea campanulata P. Beauv. (Bignoniaceae) and Azadirachta indica A. Juss. (Meliaceae) in South America, species recognized for their invasive potential and for their negative effects on pollinators, especially bees. Species distribution models (SDMs) were applied using multiple algorithms and climatic and edaphic variables, with projections under distinct climate change scenarios. Model performance was evaluated using the Jaccard similarity index. Overall, the results indicated that both species exhibit broad environmental suitability across South America, though with distinct spatial patterns reflecting complementary ecological niches. Spathodea campanulata showed a stronger association with humid tropical regions, whereas A. indica exhibited greater suitability for dry and semi-arid environments. The expansion of these species poses additional risks to bees, including reports of nectar and pollen toxicity and reductions in floral diversity, which may compromise colony development and pollination services. Thus, the results highlight the importance of predictive modeling as a tool for identifying areas susceptible to invasion and supporting monitoring, management, and biodiversity conservation strategies, especially in the face of climate change challenges.