FATORES QUE INFLUENCIAM O AUMENTO NO PREÇO DOS ALIMENTOS QUE COMPÕEM A CESTA BÁSICA NO ESTADO DE GOIÁS

Abstract

This study analyzed the variation in the prices of food items that make up the basic food basket in the state of Goiás, between 2018 and 2023, with the aim of understanding the factors that directly impact these costs and proposing solutions to mitigate their fluctuations. The research used quantitative data provided by the National Supply Company (Conab) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), including the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), in addition to relevant bibliographic references. The PDCA Cycle (Plan, Do, Check, Act) was adopted as a methodological tool to structure the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data. The results revealed that the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2021) and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine (2022) were the main events that impacted food prices. These factors contributed to logistical disruptions, increased agricultural input costs, and inflationary pressures, significantly increasing the cost of the basic food basket, especially for items such as rice, beans, soybean oil, and beef. Food inflation, measured by the IPCA, was strongly correlated with increases in average prices, disproportionately affecting low-income families. Despite the public policies adopted, such as the reduction of the ICMS in Goiás, the impact was limited in the face of global and seasonal crises. The study also highlighted the evolution of the composition of the basic food basket, which now includes fresh and minimally processed foods, reflecting greater concern for nutritional diversity and food security. It is concluded that price stabilization requires structural measures, including incentives for local production, strengthening logistics, and greater agricultural self-sufficiency. The results reinforce the importance of integrated public policies to ensure the affordability of food and mitigate the effects of inflation on the most vulnerable population.