A RELAÇÃO ENTRE A VEGETAÇÃO URBANA E A OCORRÊNCIA DE DENGUE: ESTUDO DE CASO EM CALDAS NOVAS, GOIÁS

Abstract

This study investigates the association between the occurrence of dengue and the spatial distribution of vegetation in the urban area of Caldas Novas, Goiás. The purpose is to provide insights into the role of vegetation in the transmission of dengue in urban environments, contributing to a better understanding of the factors that affect the spread of the disease. Data on dengue notifications by neighborhood were obtained from the city hall for the years 2018 to 2022. Neighborhood vegetation cover data were estimated using the Random Forest classification model. Regression models were adjusted to describe the occurrence of the disease as a function of vegetation cover. The hypothesis of this study is that there is a negative association between the density of vegetation in urban areas and the incidence of dengue, where the greater density of vegetation acts as a protective factor by reducing the amount of breeding sites available for the Aedes aegypti mosquito and, consequently, , reduce the number of notifications of the disease. The decrease in vegetation exponentially influences the number of notifications. In neighborhoods where there is more than 75% vegetation cover, there was no significant variation in notifications over the time studied.