DESENVOLVIMENTO DE METODOLOGIA PARA ESCOLHA DE PRODUTOS AGROPECUÁRIOS VISANDO REDUÇÃO DE RISCO DE PREÇO DE VENDA

Abstract

When you work with products from the same production chain in integrated agricultural production systems, it can happen that product prices are highly correlated. In this work, it was propose a way to start planning integrated agricultural production systems by looking at the end of the production chain. The objective of this work was to analyze the relationship between the prices of agricultural products, identifying the best sets of products to provide greater revenue stability in an integrated system of agricultural production. Furthermore, an attempt was made to observe the behavior of product sales prices over the year to provide a schedule for each product sale at the most interesting time for the system, ensuring greater income stability for property. The method used was the exploratory research using the database of the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics - CEPEA-Esalq/USP. For products choice, the products provided by the CEPEA website were considered. The prices of agricultural quotations for 11 years of 36 agricultural products were used. The main highlight of the product that was observed was cassava, as it is a more rustic product and has a low correlation between the others. This way it can reduce the price risk in the sale of these products since the activity is mostly price taker.