PREÇO DA SOJA E DO MILHO DURANTE A PANDEMIA DA COVID-19 E SEUS IMPACTOS NO MERCADO NACIONAL DA CARNE

Abstract

The emergence of Covid-19 and its arrival in Brazil not only generated a national sanitary collapse, but ended up also directly and indirectly affecting the national economy. The uncertain scenario caused by the pandemic increased the price risk in practically all national markets, including the Brazilian agricultural markets and in the prices of important agricultural products, such as corn, soybeans and various types of meat. The objective of this work is, therefore, to present information about the effects that the public health crisis resulting from Covid-19 has brought to the price of soy and corn, in general, and how this has influenced the prices of meat, mainly in cattle. Brazil, as a major producer and exporter of grains and meat, experienced considerable variations in the prices of these commodities during the pandemic. Soy and corn prices increased sharply after the start of the pandemic, with sacks of these grains reaching in November 2021 twice the prices observed in November 2019. This increase can be explained mainly by the rise of the dollar during this period. time course. With the exchange rate appreciation, there was a preference of producers to export, reducing the internal supply of corn and soybeans on the market, raising the price of the product in the country. Beef followed the increase in the price of these grains, even showing a similar behavior in price changes, especially compared to soybeans. This is mainly due to the increase in input prices, mainly in the feed used in confinement systems, which includes corn and soybean meal in its composition. The high prices of beef led consumers to search for cheaper alternatives for animal protein, such as pork and chicken, which were also consequently affected by the increase in consumption and by the prices of soy and corn used in the nutrition of these animals. Studies that monitor these variations with a possible containment of the virus are interesting, especially for evaluating future impacts on post-pandemic commodity prices.