DISTRIBUIÇÃO PREDITIVA ATUAL E FUTURA DA ESPÉCIE INVASORA Agave sisalana Perr. Ex. Engelm NA AMÉRICA DO SUL

Abstract

With the advancement of globalization, environmental changes are fast and intense, with this, the native biodiversity has suffered from the loss of species. The invasion of invasive plants is one of the adversities that generate serious impacts on ecosystems, and a considerable part is due to plant species. Allied to this, climate change can alter and even favor the spatial distribution of invaders in the future, since the problems can be even greater. The plant species Agave sisalana Perr. Ex. Engelm, belonging to the Agavaceae family is native to the Yucatan Peninsula, in Mexico and is among the invasive exotic plants inserted in South America. Especially in Brazil, its invasive potential is high, as it represents an important source of income for the region. northeast, where there is a trade in fiber extracted from the leaves. Among the environmental impacts caused, is the expulsion of natives and alteration of habitat. In this scenario, the present work aims to understand the present and future distribution of A. sisalana in South America, by means of distribution modeling, in order to measure the vulnerability of the study region and the potential invader of the species with regard to dissemination. Geographic coordinates that indicate the occurrence of A. sisalana were obtained from online databases and then treated in order to maintain the reliability of the models. Nineteen climatic variables from WordClim were considered. Procedures were performed in the R software and the models were tested with partitions of 70% for training and 30% for testing. 32 unique records for the species in South America were used. The Jaccard value for the models was 0.85 considered good, indicating that the models generated are reliable. The results indicated an increase in areas suitable for the occurrence of invasive A. sisalana in the future. That said, it is believed that the invasive potential of the species will be greater, due to the increase in the area of dispersion. Allied to this, the present reality does not contribute to the reduction of threats to biodiversity in the exposed scenario.