CONSERVAÇÃO DE Cattleya walkeriana Gardner(ORCHIDACEAE) FRENTE A MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS: ANÁLISE DA DISTRIBUIÇÃO ATUAL E FUTURA

Abstract

The present study aimed to present the current distribution of the Cattleya walkeriana species (Orchidaceae) and to model the species' distribution considering future scenarios influenced by climate change. This plant is found in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes, possesses a specialized niche, and has been suffering from anthropogenic pressure, among other factors, due to environmental degradation, exacerbated extractivism, and climate change. Online databases from virtual herbaria, such as Reflora, spLink, and Jabot, were used to collect species occurrence points. We considered herbarium specimens whose images were available on digital platforms to verify the taxon's identification. For the modeling process, variables influencing its territorial occupation were employed within the current scenario, modeling its present and near-future distributions, estimated for 2060, under different scenarios (optimistic, intermediate, and critical). Additionally, a comparison was drawn between these future models and the conservation areas of the Brazilian territory to verify possible behaviors of the species in relation to these sites and to analyze its risk. Species distribution models were employed to analyze how future climate change might influence the distribution of C. walkeriana in the Cerrado. The Jaccard index was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the produced models. In a comparison between the current and future models, it is noted that the species tends to decline in any future scenario, eventually losing its occupation, mainly in the country's Central-West region, concentrating in the Southeast region. Therefore, climate change and anthropogenic action represent a threat to the occupation and existence of the studied species, requiring attention regarding its preservation.