O USO DA TERRA E A DISTRIBUIÇÃO DOS CASOS DE RAIVA BOVINA EM GOIÁS, BRASIL, 1985 A 2016

Abstract

This paper evaluated bovine rabies distribution and its relation with land use in Goiás, Brazil, between 1985 and 2016. Laboratory results were obtained from records of LABVET to Agrodefesa's network of laboratories. Data on cattle and land use variables (crops, pastures, and forests) were provided by IBGE's agricultural censuses (1985, 1996, and 2006) and LAPIG/UFG (2015). For the spatial analysis of bovine rabies, the software QGIZ v2.18.1 was used. The evolution of land use and cattle variables was demonstrated with the help of the Microsoft Excel 2016 software. To evaluate the association of the disease with land use, a logistic regression analysis was performed using Stata v12.0. The highest number of cases of the disease was registered between 1997 and 2006 (1505), corresponding to 75.74% of the positive tests. The greatest expansion of the disease occurred between 2001 and 2005 in the Central, North, and South mesoregions, reaching 156 (63.41%) municipalities throughout the state. The study of land use revealed an increase in cattle, annual crop and planted forest, and a reduction of perennial crop, pasture (native and planted) and natural forest. The perennial crop was the only variable that showed association with bovine rabies (p = 0.031). The present study suggests that the variables of land use and cattle were not sufficient to explain the behavior of bovine rabies in the state, and other factors such as the presence of hematophagous bats, artificial shelters, and environmental disturbances may have influenced more directly in the distribution of bovine rabies in Goiás between 1985 and 2016.