O IMPACTO DA MUDANÇA NA FENOLOGIA E NA DISTRIBUIÇÃO GEOGRÁFICA EM ANUROS DE HABITATIS DIFERENTES DO CERRADO

Abstract

Here, the objective was to describe the phenology of Barycholos ternetzi and Physalaemus cuvieri, assessing reproductive patterns, acoustic niches and geographic distributions, and to predict how species will respond to the effects of future climate change. Passive Acoustic Monitoring (MAP) was used to obtain records in forest environments and flooded open areas, distributed in different points of the Cerrado biome and a Data-Logger to measure air temperature. In the analyzes, discriptive statistics were made and then a linear regression was made to test if there is a relationship between the call rate and temperature for each time. In order to generate ecological niche models (ENM), species occurrence data were obtained, as well as climatic variables, in GIS format, along their geographical distribution. From these, potential distribution maps for both species, based on ENM, were designed for the present climate scenario as well as for future scenarios (2050 - 2100). In acoustic models, a generalized additive mixed model was used to relate call rate as a function of temperature. And finally, the acoustic models were designed for future weather conditions (2050 - 2100). The tape records occurred during the rainy season, with high thermal amplitude (B. ternatzi: 17,3°C to 28,3°C; P. cuvieri: 16,7°C to 31,4°C). For both species, there was a negative relationship between call rate and early evening air temperature. In the model predictions, B. ternetzi presents a distribution along the Cerrado biome, while P. cuvieri occurred in broad areas of adjacent biomes. In future scenarios (optimistc and pessimistic), for both species, area of climate suitability will be reduced and restricted. Currently, for B. ternetzi the maximum peak of acoustic activity is found in the early evening, prolonging call rate throughout the night. When projecting into the future, call rates remain throughout the night, however the maximum peak shift towards the end of the night. P. cuvieri currently has a wide geographical distribution, with call rate beginning at dusk and extending into the morning. In future scenarios, call rate time bands will be restricted only to the night time, but maintaining the peak of acoustic activities. The acoustic activities of both species occur throughout the rainy season, especially with greater intensity in the second half of the season. Acoustic models show a large spatial reduction of B. ternetzi activities but maintaining the peak period. For P. cuvieri shows the reduction of areas in call rate, although the maximum peak of emissions shift to the first two months of the season.